China shock

Other studies questioned the role of U.S. policy decisions such as the granting of [[permanent normal trade relations]] (PNTR) to China in 2000. George Alessandria and colleagues argued that the uncertainty surrounding China's trade status had already faded by the late 1990s, meaning PNTR had little practical effect on import flows. Similarly, Handley and Limão (2017) found that PNTR-induced policy certainty accounted for only one-third of Chinese export growth to the United States, with the remainder driven by China’s own domestic reforms.<ref name="Cato" />

Other studies questioned the role of U.S. policy decisions such as the granting of [[permanent normal trade relations]] (PNTR) to China in 2000. George Alessandria and colleagues argued that the uncertainty surrounding China's trade status had already faded by the late 1990s, meaning PNTR had little practical effect on import flows. Similarly, Handley and Limão (2017) found that PNTR-induced policy certainty accounted for only one-third of Chinese export growth to the United States, with the remainder driven by China’s own domestic reforms.<ref name="Cato" />

Mary Amiti et al. (2020) attributed around two-thirds of the U.S. manufacturing response to China’s WTO accession to China’s own tariff reductions, rather than U.S. trade liberalization. This view is supported by Zhi Wang and colleagues (2018), who found that while Chinese imports did lead to localized job losses, the aggregate effect on U.S. employment and wages was positive when supply-chain linkages were taken into account.<ref name="Cato" />

Mary Amiti et al. (2020) attributed around two-thirds of the U.S. manufacturing response to [[China and the World Trade Organization|China’s WTO accession]] to China’s own tariff reductions, rather than U.S. trade liberalization. This view is supported by Zhi Wang and colleagues (2018), who found that while Chinese imports did lead to localized job losses, the aggregate effect on U.S. employment and wages was positive when supply-chain linkages were taken into account.<ref name="Cato" />

The consumer benefits of Chinese imports have also been emphasized. Xavier Jaravel and Erick Sager (2019) estimated that a one-percentage-point increase in imports from China reduced U.S. consumer prices by nearly two percentage points, leading to an average savings of $411,000 per lost manufacturing job — benefiting especially low- and middle-income households.<ref name="Cato" />

The consumer benefits of Chinese imports have also been emphasized. Xavier Jaravel and Erick Sager (2019) estimated that a one-percentage-point increase in imports from China reduced U.S. consumer prices by nearly two percentage points, leading to an average savings of $411,000 per lost manufacturing job — benefiting especially low- and middle-income households.<ref name="Cato" />