1957–1958 influenza pandemic

==Mortality estimates==

==Mortality estimates==

[[File:Monthly time series of all‐cause and respiratory mortality per 10,000 people in Chile, 1953–1959.jpg|thumb|upright=2|[[Excess mortality]] in Chile, 1953–1959. Flu seasons highlighted in gray. Note black spikes in the mortality rate.]]

[[File:Monthly time series of all‐cause and respiratory mortality per 10,000 people in Chile, 1953–1959.jpg|thumb|upright=2|[[Excess mortality]] in Chile, 1953–1959. Flu seasons highlighted in gray. Note black spikes in the mortality rate.]]

In October 1957, US Surgeon General Leroy E. Burney told ''The New York Times'' that the pandemic is mild and the case fatality rate (CFR) is below "two-thirds of 1 per cent", or less than 0.67%.<ref>{{cite news|date=1957-10-25|title=Flu Toll Reaches 300 As Cases Rise – U.S. Says 1,000,000 Fell III Last Week--Death Rate Called 'Not Alarming'|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1957/10/25/archives/flu-toll-reaches-300-as-cases-rise-us-says-1000000-fell-iii-last.html|access-date=2021-06-21|issn=0362-4331}}</ref> After the pandemic, information from 29 general practices in the UK estimated 2.3 deaths per 1,000 medically attended cases.<ref>{{cite book|title=The influenza epidemic in England and Wales, 1957-1958|publisher=London: Stationery Office|year=1960|page=21}}</ref> A survey based on randomly selected families in Kolkata, India, revealed that there were 1,055 deaths in 1,496,000 cases.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Sivaramakrishnan|first=Kavita|date=November 2020|title=Endemic risks: influenza pandemics, public health, and making self-reliant Indian citizens|journal=Journal of Global History|language=en|volume=15|issue=3|pages=459–477|doi=10.1017/S1740022820000340|s2cid=228981283|issn=1740-0228|doi-access=free}}</ref> On the symposium of Asian influenza in 1958, a range of CFR from 0.01% to 0.33% was provided, most frequently in between 0.02% and 0.05%.<ref name=":3" /> More recently, the World Health Organization estimated the CFR of Asian flu to be lower than 0.2%.<ref name=":1" /> In the US pandemic preparedness plan, the CDC estimated the CFR of 1957 pandemic to be 0.1%.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Meltzer|first1=Martin I.|last2=Gambhir|first2=Manoj|last3=Atkins|first3=Charisma Y.|last4=Swerdlow|first4=David L.|date=2015-05-01|title=Standardizing Scenarios to Assess the Need to Respond to an Influenza Pandemic|url=https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/60/suppl_1/S1/356555|journal=Clinical Infectious Diseases|language=en|volume=60|issue=suppl_1|pages=S1–S8|doi=10.1093/cid/civ088|issn=1537-6591|pmc=4481578|pmid=25878296}}</ref> The estimated CFR from first wave morbidity and excess mortality in Norway is in between 0.04% and 0.11%.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Mamelund|first1=Svenn-Erik|last2=Iversen|first2=Bjørn G.|date=2000-02-10|title=Sykelighet og dødelighet ved pandemisk influensa i Norge|url=https://tidsskriftet.no/2000/02/aktuelt-problem/sykelighet-og-dodelighet-ved-pandemisk-influensa-i-norge|journal=Tidsskrift for den Norske Legeforening|language=no|issn=0029-2001}}</ref> Other scholars estimated the CFR near 0.1%.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Taubenberger|first1=Jeffery K.|last2=Morens|first2=David M.|date=January 2006|title=1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics|journal=Emerg Infect Dis |volume=12|issue=1|pages=15–22|doi=10.3201/eid1201.050979|pmc=3291398|pmid=16494711}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Napoli|first1=C.|last2=Fabiani|first2=M.|last3=Rizzo|first3=C.|last4=Barral|first4=M.|last5=Oxford|first5=J.|last6=Cohen|first6=J. M.|last7=Niddam|first7=L.|last8=Goryński|first8=P.|last9=Pistol|first9=A.|last10=Lionis|first10=C.|last11=Briand|first11=S.|date=2015-02-19|title=Assessment of human influenza pandemic scenarios in Europe|journal=Eurosurveillance|language=en|volume=20|issue=7|pages=29–38|doi=10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.7.21038|pmid=25719965|issn=1560-7917|doi-access=free|hdl=11573/833450|hdl-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Viboud|first1=Cécile|last2=Simonsen|first2=Lone|date=2013-07-13|title=Timely estimates of influenza A H7N9 infection severity|journal=The Lancet|language=English|volume=382|issue=9887|pages=106–108|doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61447-6|pmid=23803486|issn=0140-6736|pmc=7136974}}</ref>

In October 1957, US Surgeon General Leroy E. Burney told ''The New York Times'' that the pandemic is mild and the case fatality rate (CFR) is below "two-thirds of 1 per cent", or less than 0.67%.<ref>{{cite news|date=1957-10-25|title=Flu Toll Reaches 300 As Cases Rise – U.S. Says 1,000,000 Fell III Last Week--Death Rate Called 'Not Alarming'|language=en-US|work=The New York Times|url=https://www.nytimes.com/1957/10/25/archives/flu-toll-reaches-300-as-cases-rise-us-says-1000000-fell-iii-last.html|access-date=2021-06-21|issn=0362-4331}}</ref> After the pandemic, information from 29 general practices in the UK estimated 2.3 deaths per 1,000 medically attended cases.<ref>{{cite book|title=The influenza epidemic in England and Wales, 1957-1958|location=London, England|publisher=Her Majesty's Stationery Office|year=1960|page=21}}</ref> A survey based on randomly selected families in Kolkata, India, revealed that there were 1,055 deaths in 1,496,000 cases.<ref>{{cite journal|last=Sivaramakrishnan|first=Kavita|date=November 2020|title=Endemic risks: influenza pandemics, public health, and making self-reliant Indian citizens|journal=Journal of Global History|language=en|volume=15|issue=3|pages=459–477|doi=10.1017/S1740022820000340|s2cid=228981283|issn=1740-0228|doi-access=free}}</ref> On the symposium of Asian influenza in 1958, a range of CFR from 0.01% to 0.33% was provided, most frequently in between 0.02% and 0.05%.<ref name=":3" /> More recently, the World Health Organization estimated the CFR of Asian flu to be lower than 0.2%.<ref name=":1" /> In the US pandemic preparedness plan, the CDC estimated the CFR of 1957 pandemic to be 0.1%.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Meltzer|first1=Martin I.|last2=Gambhir|first2=Manoj|last3=Atkins|first3=Charisma Y.|last4=Swerdlow|first4=David L.|date=2015-05-01|title=Standardizing Scenarios to Assess the Need to Respond to an Influenza Pandemic|url=https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/60/suppl_1/S1/356555|journal=Clinical Infectious Diseases|language=en|volume=60|issue=suppl_1|pages=S1–S8|doi=10.1093/cid/civ088|issn=1537-6591|pmc=4481578|pmid=25878296}}</ref> The estimated CFR from first wave morbidity and excess mortality in Norway is in between 0.04% and 0.11%.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Mamelund|first1=Svenn-Erik|last2=Iversen|first2=Bjørn G.|date=2000-02-10|title=Sykelighet og dødelighet ved pandemisk influensa i Norge|url=https://tidsskriftet.no/2000/02/aktuelt-problem/sykelighet-og-dodelighet-ved-pandemisk-influensa-i-norge|journal=Tidsskrift for den Norske Legeforening|language=no|issn=0029-2001}}</ref> Other scholars estimated the CFR near 0.1%.<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Taubenberger|first1=Jeffery K.|last2=Morens|first2=David M.|date=January 2006|title=1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics|journal=Emerg Infect Dis |volume=12|issue=1|pages=15–22|doi=10.3201/eid1201.050979|pmc=3291398|pmid=16494711}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Napoli|first1=C.|last2=Fabiani|first2=M.|last3=Rizzo|first3=C.|last4=Barral|first4=M.|last5=Oxford|first5=J.|last6=Cohen|first6=J. M.|last7=Niddam|first7=L.|last8=Goryński|first8=P.|last9=Pistol|first9=A.|last10=Lionis|first10=C.|last11=Briand|first11=S.|date=2015-02-19|title=Assessment of human influenza pandemic scenarios in Europe|journal=Eurosurveillance|language=en|volume=20|issue=7|pages=29–38|doi=10.2807/1560-7917.ES2015.20.7.21038|pmid=25719965|issn=1560-7917|doi-access=free|hdl=11573/833450|hdl-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite journal|last1=Viboud|first1=Cécile|last2=Simonsen|first2=Lone|date=2013-07-13|title=Timely estimates of influenza A H7N9 infection severity|journal=The Lancet|language=English|volume=382|issue=9887|pages=106–108|doi=10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61447-6|pmid=23803486|issn=0140-6736|pmc=7136974}}</ref>

The flu may have infected as many as or more people than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, but the vaccine, improved health care, and the invention of [[antibiotics]] to manage opportunistic bacterial infections contributed to a lower mortality rate.<ref name="oxford" />

The flu may have infected as many as or more people than the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, but the vaccine, improved health care, and the invention of [[antibiotics]] to manage opportunistic bacterial infections contributed to a lower mortality rate.<ref name="oxford" />